Idyllwild, CA (PRWEB) July 11, 2008 In 2002, market forecaster Daniel T. Ferrera wrote 'Wheels within Wheels: The Art of Forecasting Market Cycles,' published by the Sacred Science Institute.
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Ferrera's work, inspired by the late W.D. Gann's famed forecasting work, utilizes extensive analysis of long-term cycles in the Stock Market. Ferrera utilizes two sets of cycles: A shorter term forecast that uses ten cycles and a longer term forecast he calls the DTF Long-Term Barometer. The former forecast, illustrated in Chart 1, incorporates cycles as short as five months and several other short-term cycles. These shorter-term cycles, though very strong, are also somewhat unstable and subject to what cycles analysts refer to as 'flipping'; unexpected extensions occur in the cycle that can temporarily cause actual market performance to diverge from the forecast. A flip occurs when a cycle peak is 'scheduled' to occur and begin a downward leg, but instead, proceeds upwards for the next leg of the cycle. The cycle wavelength remains unchanged and typically resumes its saw tooth wave pattern after the flip.
Chart 2 shows the same chart with the x-axis (time) shown in years instead of quarterly. Note that several of the shorter-term cycles have flipped in recent years.
Chart 3 is Mr. Ferrera's long-term forecast, a composite of 16 long-term cycles, which he calls the DTF Barometer. He has carried this chart through the year 2108 in his masterful text on cycles titled, 'Wheels within Wheels: The Art of Forecasting Financial Market Cycles.'
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Chart 3 shows the forecasted market performance since the text was published in 2002 to 2009. Chart 4 exhibits the performance of the same long-term composite cycles extending from 1890 through 2000 showing high correlation to actual market activity and correctly catching most major turning points. Many of us hear business reporters in the media saying, 'The business cycle has turned down.'
Until Ferrera's groundbreaking work, many people recognized the existence of a business cycle, complete with upswings and downturns, but no one had successfully quantified these cycles. Ferrera says, 'I investigated stock market activity back into the 1800's and even developed my own industrial average for the period pre-dating the inception of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. For the long-term forecast, I identified sixteen dominant cycles that appear to successfully forecast stock market activity over significantly long periods of time. Other cycle experts from the past such as W.
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